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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a election period dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.