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The Ashes may offer a reason to cheer, but this series will also witness the Australian team celebrate more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day before the team was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster turns 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is out.

Older Squad Fascination Builds

For a couple of years there has been mounting fascination with the average age of this side and particularly the bowling attack. It is rare to have nearly all player in a Test team being above thirty, aside from young mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a problem: a Test squad featuring a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

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Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the backup bowlers over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Younger bowlers have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Change Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have continued performing. Any team knows that having a batch of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of similarly-timed departures, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a train that would indeed be coming round the bend when she comes, but one that had not become visible.

Now, suddenly, change is upon them, forced upon this Aussie team in the span of a short period. The back injury to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would likely only sit out the opening match, was the team management view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the team balance undergoes a much more significant shift with two key bowlers missing rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the side. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so successful in Test matches coming on after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll probably have to be the opening bowler.

Debutant Confronts Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself isn't an intimidated youngster, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the opening Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many newspaper profiles describe him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

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It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this new attack. It might not work out. What is notable is how quickly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. Who knows what further injuries the opening match may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and able to continue after that match, given how tricky stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a history of going down early in tournaments and a pattern of minor injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Future Uncertain

The latter part of the contest may witness the main four bowlers back together and all going well. Or it might experience transition beginning much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly the next option and could be a excellent day-night Brisbane option, but beyond that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this format is no place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all opportunity for the opposing side. You can hear that change approaching, rolling round the corner, and the English team hasn't seen the success since they don’t know when.