Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Putin's scheduled negotiations on the near four-year conflict in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely.

Reports of an upcoming US-Russia presidential meeting have been overstated, it seems.

Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, too.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
  • Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks postponed
  • Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington without results

The frequently changing summit is just the latest development in the president's efforts to mediate an end to war in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.

During a speech in Egypt recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.

Reduced Influence

Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a deal was Israel's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but gave the president leverage to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump gained from a long record of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.

Combine Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has warned to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the conflict.

At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and pausing arms shipments to the nation - only to then retreat in the face of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.

Trump often boasts about his ability to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the hostilities any closer to a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Putin's meeting in the summer yielded no concrete results.

The Russian president may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.

In July, Putin consented to a summit in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently delayed.

Recently, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then touted the possible summit in Budapest.

The next day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.

Trump maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the Ukrainian leader later made note of the sequence of events.

"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.

Thus, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – even territory Russia has been failed to capture.

He has ultimately settled on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has rejected.

On the campaign trail last year, Trump vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, admitting that concluding the war is proving more difficult than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.

Jennifer Bates
Jennifer Bates

Elara is a seasoned fantasy football analyst with over a decade of experience in dynasty leagues and player evaluation.